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| Here Goes The Pound | |
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| Topic Started: 6 Oct 2009, 01:44 PM (4,217 Views) | |
| 2plus3 | 26 Jan 2010, 08:34 PM Post #126 |
Waiting for the off!
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On the news this morning they were cautiously hinting that the UK is out of recession ...... :pray: Kari |
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| ValeSpark | 26 Jan 2010, 10:52 PM Post #127 |
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0.1% is hardly full steam ahead.. :no way: But it is still all pointing in the same direction, so I still have pound improving :boxer: |
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| 2plus3 | 27 Jan 2010, 01:22 AM Post #128 |
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Waiting for the off!
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We're stuck in the UK just biding our time for the house prices to edge up a bit and at the same time hoping that Ash's work doesn't dry up completely, so any positive bit of news on the economy is music to our ears :yeap: |
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| koalakim | 27 Jan 2010, 07:36 AM Post #129 |
Legend
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Don't get too excited! These are only preliminary figures - it could show that there was no growth at all! The pound rose on the expectation but plunged 2 cents when the figure came through. I've also been reading another daily blog by a trader who reckons the Iraqi war enquiry could also have a volatile effect on the pound. Although Tony is out of office it is still the same Labour Party and TB has 6 hours of questioning on Friday - so watch out for that. Also Dec retail figures were poor and of course the country ground to a halt this month with the snow - all of this will affect the figures for the 1st quater. I wouldn't be counting my chickens just yet! |
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| Amanda & Simon | 27 Jan 2010, 10:40 AM Post #130 |
Braiiiiiinnnss
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I think Kim's right. Don't want to sound pessimistic but it could be a double dip recession. It's a very weak recovery considering Gordon printed shitloads of money and persuaded loads of people to buy a new car on the scrapping scheme. The money printing has now stopped - it's got to because inflation is starting to go up so he doesn't dare tell badger face to print more - and the car scheme is nearly over. And as Kim says there are reasons why the Q1 2010 might not be that flash anyway. 0.1% growth could be just a lull before the next bit of the recession. Frankly I think it's probably nearly all down to the money printing, which was likely supposed to get the country just out of negative growth long enough for Gordon to call and hold the general election. I'd put money on the date being before the next figures are out, just in case the economy's started going backwards again. |
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| Gail.C | 27 Jan 2010, 10:44 AM Post #131 |
A phenomenon
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How long has the bugger got until he has to call an election? It can't be long now. I bet he wishes he did it when he first got in office now before the country went tits up. I'll personally hold a party in the honour of his departure :haveit: :haveit: . |
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| Amanda & Simon | 27 Jan 2010, 11:31 AM Post #132 |
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Braiiiiiinnnss
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June 3rd. I still vote and get an annual reminder from the election honcho where we used to live, and the last letter mentioned that the GE had to be held by then. But May 6th is looking possible - some minister who looks like an older fatter version of Blakey from On The Buses let May 6th slip out in an interview. Depending on whether my tinfoil hat is on or off that might mean he got a bollocking for failing to keep shtum until the time or it might mean that he's going to be rewarded for convincingly leaking the wrong date so as to screw with the Tories. As I've said many times before though, it doesn't matter much because whenever it is you can be sure that afterwards a bunch of bastards that couldn't run a summer fete cake stall will be in charge of the whole country :mah: :dur: |
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| thepearces | 8 Feb 2010, 08:34 PM Post #133 |
Member
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I have only scan read some of the posts, but we highly recommend HiFX for money transfers. Google them or go to www.hifx.com. |
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| abertawe | 9 Feb 2010, 07:43 PM Post #134 |
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Getting depressed again. Just as you think the Pound is improving, it drops 3c in one day. Then on the FT.com I watched this http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=14285787&fromSearch=n Interesting but depressing. |
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| koalakim | 10 Feb 2010, 07:59 AM Post #135 |
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Legend
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It would seem the whole Euro thing has dragged the pound down as well. British trade gap widened yesterday and all the figures for January have been bad because of the weather. They are still talking that things could get worse in the global economy again before it gets better. The RBA here are talking about interest rate rises to cool the property market....well all the reports I've been reading have been saying that at the lower end of the market where us mere mortals are then it's already cooled to a certain extent. Erm....jolly reading, not! KK p.s. not quite related but Dubai's woes continue with the new tower having been shut down due to electrical problems. Interesting coincidence that as the tower was almost completed Dubai had financial troubles and now their flag ship building is in trouble.....me thinks a bit of bad Feng Shui going on here - perhaps they built the tower in the wrong place :Grin: |
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| RobN | 10 Feb 2010, 04:22 PM Post #136 |
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Yes, the Euro is more of a concern than the British Pound. It's new territory for this currency that covers so many countries, where a certain four of them are in serious trouble, and have the potential of defaulting - Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain (otherwise known as the PIGS). Greece is in the worst way, probably followed by Ireland. Outside of both the eurozone and the EU, Ukraine is also in a bad way - another country that has the potential to default. By comparison, the UK is in a better position than these other European countries - the biggest issue with the national debt of the UK isn't so much the amount, but the speed in which it got there. The money printing devalued the Pound very quickly (similar to the US Dollar), it will take a while for it to gain value again. Also, technically the UK cannot default because of the way the central bank is set up (i.e. it's obliged to cover the debts of the government) - however this has meant money printing the last year. The amount of national debt is a secondary issue, and the number which should be looked at is the amount it costs to service the debt rather than the debt total itself. My suspicion is that the Pound/AU Dollar exchange rate will eventually head back towards the range of $2.15-$2.25 rather than the $2.50+ we've seen before. But we're probably a good 12-18 months away from that. There is potentially a bubble being formed in Australia with property, and if the RBA does increase rates according to property prices then there is a high chance of severe mortgage stress, and possibly defaulting. When it comes to Australia, usually only the national debt is referred to. This rarely includes the debts of the state governments, or even councils if they ever run in debt (I don't know if they're allowed to). It also doesn't include personal debt (e.g. mortgages, credit cards, bank loans etc). I read an article recently that suggested if you compare the total national debt (governments and personal) of Australia and the UK, because of the personal debt levels in Australia there is actually a greater amount of debt within Australia than the UK when compared to GDP. It's not hugely more, but none-the-less still more. If things do turn really bad (which I actually don't think they will) then this could become a major problem for Australia if it is so. |
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| Amanda & Simon | 10 Feb 2010, 05:16 PM Post #137 |
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Braiiiiiinnnss
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I'm astonished to hear that. I'd thought that more than a decade of dirt cheap credit meant that the level of personal debt in the UK was very high and I'm sure I've seen mention of it being at quite worrying levels. Coupled with the government debt, which we can take for granted is a hell of a lot higher than the official figure (I've seen 'triple' but I don't know how accurate that was) I'd heard that the UK was in about the worst shape in the G20. There's also the chance that the 0.1% recovery is all down to the money printing and a bit of a Christmas splurge and the Q1 figures will show a double dip recession - $10 says Gordon calls the general election so that it's held just before the Q1 figures are out :wink: |
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| abertawe | 11 Feb 2010, 12:36 PM Post #138 |
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I'm going to go and bury my head in the sand on Canadian Bay Beach. When the Pound gets back up above $2 (if ever), please come and dig me out. Cheers. |
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| koalakim | 11 Feb 2010, 05:13 PM Post #139 |
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Legend
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Ha ha ....we'll come and dig you out when a some piggies fly over the bay! |
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| MandyR | 12 Feb 2010, 04:13 AM Post #140 |
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We have just moved all of ours across. I have got quite addicted to checking HiFX several times a day for the last 18 months! So wished we brought it out when we came in Jan 09 when it was 2.20! We thought it will go back up to 2.30/2.45 and remember that miracle day in Oct/Nov 2008 when I was watching several on here buying it at 2.67! (we sold our house in the UK 2 weeks later :mah: ). We did manage to get it exchanged at a rate of 1.80 last week so at least it had gone up a few cents!! Can recommend HiFX both in the UK and here in Australia. We registered in the UK at first and then registered with HiFX in Australia after arriving - just made it easier with office opening hours. Wth Australia HiFX we had to do transactions over phone but very helpful and emailed confirmation immediately - also gave a tiny, tiny better rate when we did it over the phone - although it changes by the second so it could have been that too! Bye Hi FX ...........I can't look anymore!! :waving: |
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| koalakim | 12 Feb 2010, 07:16 AM Post #141 |
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Legend
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Someone is leaving the pound watching club! Well done on getting 1.80 last week....I bet you are glad you didn't leave it until this week! I'm seriously doubting if anything better than 1.80 is possible these days. If the election isn't clear cut then there won't be any hope together with all the European troubles. I see although the UK isn't part of the Euro we're still going to have to chip in to bail Greece out....who's going to bail the UK out? We've still got a bit over there hoping for a tad more but I'm half wondering if it's better off here earning 5% but we'll have to bring it over whatever once the mortage is in full swing to offset. Until Britain gets strong or Australia suddenly goes down the pan I can't see it getting any better for a long time, the British economy is still very weak and comments from the BoE and the Gov don't help talk up the situation to please the markets. It does seem Oz puts a spin on bad news and the markets are happy! Looks like Abertawe might be stuck on the beach for sometime..... :Grin: |
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| abertawe | 12 Feb 2010, 07:36 AM Post #142 |
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I've got my bucket and spade at the ready. KK. MandyR's point about the election is hitting the nail on the head. If it is a hang parliament or close to it, it will not help at all. |
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| RobN | 19 Feb 2010, 01:59 PM Post #143 |
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Nice!...$1.73 exchange rate at the moment. |
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| koalakim | 19 Feb 2010, 06:11 PM Post #144 |
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Legend
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Maybe you'd like to share your extra funds with us then Rob! |
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| abertawe | 23 Feb 2010, 07:51 PM Post #145 |
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1.70 What has happened in the last week for it to drop over 10c, it is nuts!!! |
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| koalakim | 23 Feb 2010, 09:14 PM Post #146 |
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Legend
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Oh hell! Now kicking myself we didn't change it all at 1.80 but it was on the up a few weeks ago and now this! Let's hope this is the bottom and the UK produces some good news soon! Ha ha |
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| Amanda & Simon | 24 Feb 2010, 03:28 PM Post #147 |
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Braiiiiiinnnss
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Maybe it was the news that Gordon and Alastair had to borrow money in January. Apparently the government get a lot of dosh from people on self assessment and something else, might have been corporation tax but I can't remember exactly. But the point was that the government never has to borrow money in January, or not for over a couple of centuries or something, because receipts are always higher than expenditure. They say this is a first in modern times and maybe it's part of the reason Sterling took another punch in the guts. |
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| OzTennis | 25 Feb 2010, 02:05 AM Post #148 |
Legend
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Interesting to read all this, we're just back from nearly 3 months in Williamstown. I did get the impression that the housing market in Melbourne was booming with high auction clearance rates, median prices for all Melbourne and most suburbs rising fiercely - but not as much as initial signs late last year and hence the surprise decision by Glenn Stevens and his team to not increase interest rates about 3 weeks ago when everyone else thought the RBA would put them up 0.25%; they will go up at the next meeting or the one after that, if not both. Selfish I know but in our circumstances we welcome the much better returns on savings but I do feel for those in the grip of transferring the lousy pound and property prices escalating and mortgage rates going up. The day before we left we went to an auction nearby (small 2 b/r townhouse); price estimate $540K - $580K. First bid was $580K and it sold for $631K. Anecdotal I know but there was very keen interest and a lot of bidding. Since returning the weather has been dire, the news is dire, the state of the economy seems dire, they've had terrible retail sales because people can't get out because of the dire weather blah, blah. I will make a few more posts once I get used to sub-zero nights, snow and getting over jetlag! :Grin: |
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| koalakim | 25 Feb 2010, 07:35 AM Post #149 |
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Legend
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Hi OzT Are you still planning to move back here permanently? Must be horrible going back to bad weather and continual bad news! KK |
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| OzTennis | 26 Feb 2010, 12:01 AM Post #150 |
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Legend
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Thanks KK, we're 'not sure' in 2 words, happy to spend part of the year in Oz (i.e. as much of the Scottish winter as we can) and part of the year in Scotland. We're both recently retired so can come and go as we please which is good. Yeah, weather and 'doom and gloom' news takes a bit of getting used to eg today the RBS announced that because their losses for the last 12 months were 'only' £5 bill + they have to pay out £1.5 bill in bonuses to their staff! Apparently you have to do this to reward and attract such talent - who had to be bailed out by the taxpayer to the tune of almost £100 bill and who almost single handedly as a group ('Oxford Bankers') caused the GCC. Still, apparently as soon as Brown's Labour are out of power Britain will turn the corner immediately. :wacko: (Titanic and re-arranging deckchairs springs to mind) |
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